Applying Fibonacci Analysis to Target the Elliott Wave Price Path Lower

The pivot at the high (1897) was identified in advance using a 1:1 Fibonacci extension as shown by the blue arrows up from the low.  Price reacted strongly to this level corroborating it as a key Fibonacci pivot and further supporting the thesis of an Elliott wave A-B-C corrective pattern up from the low.  A common characteristic of A-B-C corrections is a 1:1 ratio between wave A and C.   

In this NASDAQ100 daily chart I show other relevant Fibonacci retrace and extension pivots that key off of this probable A-B-C pattern up from the low.  I also added natural support levels to help identify key levels along the downward price path.

In the same way that I identified the move up from the low as an a-b-c pattern, if one believes price is going to extend higher, it is logical to look for an an a-b-c pattern down from the high to mark the end of the correction. There is strong natural support from mid September where price bounced on Friday but the nearest Fibonacci pivot is the .618 extension of the probable first wave down from the high and  was broken (1751).  While I have it marked as a secondary pivot (possible turn),  it is more likely that price will turn up at a key pivot characterized by a confluence of Fibonacci pivots and past price action.

The first such confluence occurs at  1705 and is a confluence between a .382 Fibonacci retrace of the move up from 1397 and a 1:1 Fibonacci extension of the first probable wave down from the high.  It is also a  .618 extension of probable wave A up from the November low.  A turn up from this level that continues higher will represent an extension of the move up from 1397.

I don't think this will happen, but a bounce or pause here is probable.  I have extended the range of this pivot to include the .250 retrace of the entire move up from the low at 1679/80.

The next major pivot is 1650. This is a 50% retrace of the move up from 1397 and close to a 1.618 extension of the first wave down from the high.  There is also strong natural support  at 1650.  A bounce here could end the correction and turn into a recovery, but at this point the bias will shift to lower prices.

A move lower from this level targets 1580-1560 with a bias for 1560 and a strong bounce. 1560 is a .382 retrace of the entire move up from the low and is the most common retrace for a 4th wave. This is where I expect the most stubborn support and a probable large bounce based on the possibility that the A-B-C up from the low is really 1-2-3 of a 5 wave impulse wave set up from the low.  I extended the range of this pivot to include the .618 retrace of the move up from 1397.

Based on the context of an A-B-C pattern up from the low,  I am ultimately looking for much lower prices. On this chart I identify the probable pivots for a bounce along the price path lower.  Less likely, but possible, they could also be the pivots for a recovery and turn back up toward higher prices. 

 



 

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